Fast Take
Because the Bitcoin halving nears, now slightly below 4,300 blocks away and slated for April 20, the community has skilled a notable surge in hash fee, registering a 15% enhance in 2024. The 14-day shifting common hash fee is approaching document ranges, presently peaking at roughly 598 eh/s.
This upswing in hash fee means that miners are ramping up their operations to optimize earnings earlier than the halving occasion, a sentiment echoed by Mike Alfred, a board member at IREN Vitality. Alfred predicts a notable post-halving correction within the international hash fee, attributing this to the widespread use of older mining tools struggling to stay worthwhile.
Supporting this remark, CryptoSlate beforehand highlighted the pattern of accelerating hash fee as a halving occasion nears, noting that such progress is typical within the 4-6 months main as much as a halving.
Historic evaluation reveals a constant sample of miner capitulation post-halving, with important drops in hash fee: 39% in December 2012, 11% in August 2016, and 26% in Could 2020. Contemplating these precedents, an identical downturn, roughly 25% primarily based on the common of previous occasions, is an affordable expectation following the subsequent halving.
The Hash Ribbon evaluation, a notable market indicator for predicting Bitcoin’s value bottoms linked to miner capitulation, additional illuminates the anticipated pattern. This indicator identifies shifts from damaging to constructive value momentum when the 30-day shifting common (MA) of the hash fee crosses above the 60-day MA. Such a crossover alerts the conclusion of essentially the most intense part of miner capitulation.
Analyzing three distinct situations, it’s noticed that miner capitulation usually begins when the 30-day MA falls under the 60-day MA, a sample typically seen post-halving. Roughly a month following this crossover, the 30-day MA tends to rise above the 60-day MA. An appreciation of Bitcoin’s worth normally accompanies this transition.
